Tag: forecasting

Updated forecasts for the UEFA Euro 2020 knockout stage

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After all group stage matches at the UEFA Euro 2020 we have updated the knockout stage forecasts by re-training our hybrid random forest model on the extended data. This shows that England profits most from the realized tournament draw. Read more ›

Evaluation of the UEFA Euro 2020 group stage forecast

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A look back on the group stage of the UEFA Euro 2020 to check whether our hybrid machine learning forecasts based were any good... Read more ›

Working paper for the UEFA Euro 2020 forecast

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A working paper describing the data and methods used for our probabilistic UEFA Euro 2020 forecast, published earlier this week, is available now. Additionally, details on the predicted performance of all teams during the group stage are provided. Read more ›

Hybrid machine learning forecasts for the UEFA Euro 2020

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Probabilistic forecasts for the UEFA Euro 2020 are obtained by using a hybrid model that combines data from four advanced statistical models through random forests. The favorite is France, followed by England and Spain. Read more ›

Hybrid machine learning forecasts for the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup

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Using a random forest ensemble learner we obtain probabilistic forecasts for the FIFA Women's World Cup in France: The clear favorite is defending champion USA followed, with some margin, by host France, England, and Germany. Read more ›

Evaluation of the 2018 FIFA World Cup forecast

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A look back the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia to check whether our tournament forecast based on the bookmaker consensus model was any good... Read more ›

Sankey diagram for the 2018 FIFA World Cup forecast

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The probabilistic forecast from the bookmaker consensus model for the 2018 FIFA World Cup is visualized in an interactive Sankey diagram, highlighting the teams' most likely progress through the tournament. Read more ›

Probabilistic forecasting for the 2018 FIFA World Cup

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Using a consensus model based on quoted bookmakers' odds winning probabilities for all competing teams in the FIFA World Cup are obtained: The favorite is Brazil, closely followed by the defending World Champion Germany. Read more ›