Tag: probabilistic forecasting

Amplification of Lightning in the European Alps 1980-2019

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Detailed measurements of lightning as well as reanalyses of atmospheric conditions enable the reconstruction of lightning probabilities over large spatial and temporal domains. Using flexible additive regression models it is shown that lightning activity in the high European Alps has doubled from the 1980s to the 2010s. Read more ›

Minimum CRPS vs. maximum likelihood

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In a new paper in Monthly Weather Review, minimum CRPS and maximum likelihood estimation are compared for fitting heteroscedastic (or nonhomogenous) regression models under different response distributions. Minimum CRPS is more robust to distributional misspecification while maximum likelihood is slightly more efficient under correct specification. An R implementation is available in the crch package. Read more ›

Thunderstorm forecasting with GAMs

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Boosted binary generalized additive models (GAMs) with stability selection and corresponding MCMC-based credibility intervals are discussed in a new MWR paper as a probabilistic forecasting method for the occurrence of thunderstorms. Read more ›