Euro 2024: Probabilistic Machine Learning Forecast

Inputs:

• Historic match abilities:
  From all national matches in 8 years.
• Bookmaker consensus abilities:
  From 28 bookmakers, adjusted for profit margins and tournament draw.
• Average player ratings:
  From goal contributions of individual players in club and national matches.
• Furthermore:
  Market value, FIFA rank, UEFA points, Champions League players, GDP.

Model:

• Ensemble of Random Forest, Lasso, XGBoost trained on matches from Euro 2004–2020.

Output:

• Mean goals for both teams in all potential matches.

Simulation:

• Multiverse of 100,000 potential tournaments with all matches, overtimes, penalties, …